Forecast leagues · Elections · Macro · Climate
Probabilities you can defend.
Eumetria is Europe's forecasting arena: join a free league, call your number on a real question, and the closest forecasters win a sponsor's prize. No stake, no bet — reality is the referee and your track record is the score.
Beta January 2027 · first cohort by invitation · free entry — a contest of skill, not a wager
The prizes shown illustrate the launch model (2027). Any play before launch is glory-only — no prizes: you build a public track record, and nothing is ever at stake.
What will euro-area inflation be in September 2027?
One question. One guess. One referee: reality.
A brand opens a league · you join free and call your number · the official source settles it · the closest forecasters win — and everyone's accuracy goes on public record.
The whole machine, in one line
A sponsored question in. A number Europe can use out.
The gap
Europe forecasts blind — and the trading model is banned. So we built the legal one.
regulators, one coordinated crackdown
In 2026 nine European regulators moved together against unlicensed prediction-market trading. Portugal, Spain and France blocked Kalshi and Polymarket outright — Portugal nationwide after $120M was wagered on its presidential vote.
National regulators (Portugal, Spain's DGOJ, France's ANJ) · coordinated action reported by iGaming Business, 2026licensed real-money prediction markets in the EU
On 3 July 2026 ESMA ruled that event contracts with a binary payout are binary options under MiFID II — already restricted for retail and sellable only by registered investment firms. No consumer venue is licensed for it. A skill contest needs no such licence.
ESMA public statement · 3 July 2026better than the experts, when the crowd is well run
In the Good Judgment Project, trained forecasting crowds beat professional intelligence analysts — who had classified data — by around 30%. And small, track-record-selected crowds beat large ones. That's exactly how Eumetria ranks.
Tetlock & Mellers, Good Judgment ProjectThe experience
From joining to winning, screen by screen.
Illustrative walkthrough · example screens
1 · Choose a league
2 · Call your number (free)
3 · Closest win the prize
Why it's legal
A contest of skill, not a wager.
Three design choices keep Eumetria the right side of the line — the reason it doesn't need a gambling licence.
Perícia, not chance
You win by being accurate about the real world — reading the data better than others. Judgement is the edge, not luck.
Not a lottery · skill decides
No stake, ever
Entry to prize leagues is always free. You never put money on an outcome — there is nothing to lose at the table.
No wager · nothing at stake
The brand pays, not the players
Prizes come from a sponsoring brand — never a pot built from participants' money. That single fact is what changes it in law.
No player pot · brand-funded
The differentiator
When the crowd says 70%, it should happen about 70% of the time. Every month we'll publish the proof in the open — even when we're wrong.
You said 1.4% · it was 2.1% → 0.7 off ✗
Over many leagues → a public track record impossible to fake
Calibration curve · forecast vs reality
Who it's for
Three ways to use one number.
Prove your judgement — and win for it
You already think in probabilities. Here that skill wins sponsor prizes and builds a measurable, portable, public record.
- European questions where local knowledge is the edge
- Free entry — nothing to lose, prizes to win
- A public accuracy score — the chess rating of forecasting
- Resolutions you'll never have to argue about
Cite a number that holds up
Every league produces a live crowd number with a stable page, a methodology and a named official source behind it.
- Embeddable live-probability widgets with attribution (2027)
- Free API for charts and data journalism (2027)
- Monthly calibration report — the audit is public
- A European number your editor can defend
Fund a league. Reach a sharp audience.
Brands fund the prizes and reach an engaged, high-signal crowd; funds and insurers tap the resulting European event signal.
- Sponsored leagues around your category
- A crowd signal built on European official sources
- Licensed data feed with history and SLA (2027)
- Ahead: a regulated European venue for hedging
How it pays for itself
Brands fund the prizes. Players never do.
A brand funds the prize pool for a league in its category — and reaches a sharp, engaged audience at the moment of a real question.
An optional monthly pass for power forecasters — deeper stats and volume, never a condition to enter a prize league or to win. The product-led base, not dependent on any one sponsor.
Media, funds and insurers license the calibrated European signal, with history and SLA.
Where the prize comes from
The pot is never built from players' money — that's the line between a skill contest and a wager, and it's the whole legal design.
The path
Free leagues now. Regulated venue next.
The roadmap is public because credibility is the product. The free leagues build the resolution standard and the track record; the regulated venue inherits both.
Foundation
Resolution standard v0, first public forecast reports, waitlist open.
Beta leagues
Invited cohort. Sponsored leagues on elections, ECB, inflation and climate go live.
The first pledge
French presidential election: crowd forecast frozen before the vote, public self-grade after.
Regulated venue
A European MTF for professionals — the real-money layer, on the same resolution standard. Authorisation underway.
The calibration pledge
Win or lose, you get the receipts.
Before every major event we publish a final crowd forecast — frozen, timestamped, signed. Afterwards we grade ourselves against it in public, side by side with the polls. No poll, no platform, does this. We will.
First pledge event: the 2027 French presidential election.
Fair questions
Asked and answered.
- Is this gambling?
- No. Entry is free, you never stake money on an outcome, and prizes come from a sponsoring brand — never a pot built from players. Winning is decided by skill (how close your forecast is), not chance. It's a contest, not a wager.
- How do the prizes work?
- A sponsor funds a league's prize pool. When the official source publishes, the three closest forecasts split it 60/30/10. The house takes no cut of a pot, because there is no player pot.
- Why should I trust the resolutions?
- Each league names an official source and a written rule before it opens. If Eurostat publishes 2.1%, the league resolves on that — no admin judgement, no votes. The resolution log is public.
- How does Eumetria make money?
- Sponsored leagues and access subscriptions first; later, licensed data feeds and — once authorised — a regulated venue for professionals. Free entry to the leagues stays free.
- What's the "regulated venue" on the roadmap?
- A separate, future, real-money layer for professional clients (2027-28), subject to authorisation. The free skill leagues are the product today; your track record carries over.
Beta · January 2027
Be a founder of the European track record.
The first cohort sets the calibration baseline the whole platform will be measured against. Invitations go out in order of the waitlist.
One email when your invite is ready. Nothing else.
Just an email — no money, no KYC, nothing to buy.
Free entry to your first leagues, matched to what you know.
First forecast in under 3 minutes. Data-stamped, on the record.
After 10 resolutions, your public accuracy score is born.